A trading bot, and the loop that has to explain it afterwards.
Desk
Synced 2026-09-05 · window 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-03
107.0
Desk, indexed
from 100 on 2026-07-31
+3.2%
Versus benchmark
S&P at 103.7
12
Positions held
82
Fills in window
40 buys
The curve is anchored to 1 August rather than rolling, and
that deserves saying out loud, because starting a performance chart where
performance improved is the oldest trick there is. Something specific changed at the
end of July: the model the analysts run on began grading its own conviction far more
strictly, the buy rate fell by about a third, and the hit rate roughly doubled. We
can date that boundary exactly and we can only partly explain it, since the desk's
exit machinery matured across the same weeks and the two causes cannot be separated
on the evidence so far. Both are written up in
why the desk stopped
buying. The bot on either side of that line is not the same bot, and splicing
the two into one curve would describe neither.
Performance against the benchmark
Indexed to 100 at the window start, so both lines are comparable and
neither reveals a size. The desk finished at 107.0, the benchmark at
103.7, a spread of +3.2%.
Show the numbers
Date
Desk
S&P (VUSA)
2026-07-31
100.00
100.00
2026-08-03
100.77
102.17
2026-08-04
102.08
103.71
2026-08-05
101.84
104.15
2026-08-06
101.05
103.79
2026-08-07
101.52
104.14
2026-08-10
101.64
103.88
2026-08-11
102.22
103.81
2026-08-12
102.40
103.81
2026-08-13
103.49
104.45
2026-08-14
104.28
104.06
2026-08-17
103.97
103.87
2026-08-18
103.21
103.04
2026-08-19
104.64
102.87
2026-08-20
104.41
102.05
2026-08-21
104.75
102.09
2026-08-24
104.86
101.70
2026-08-25
106.60
101.90
2026-08-26
107.22
102.25
2026-08-27
107.48
102.99
2026-08-28
107.28
103.75
2026-09-01
105.72
102.52
2026-09-02
106.26
103.06
2026-09-03
106.96
103.73
Week by week
Each week on its own, so a good fortnight cannot carry the story. The
desk beat the benchmark in 3 of 5 weeks. Weeks run Monday to
Friday and the first one starts at the window anchor, so it can be short.
Show the numbers
Week of
Desk
S&P (VUSA)
Difference
2026-08-03
+1.52%
+4.14%
-2.62%
2026-08-10
+2.72%
-0.08%
+2.80%
2026-08-17
+0.45%
-1.89%
+2.34%
2026-08-24
+2.42%
+1.63%
+0.79%
2026-08-31
-0.30%
-0.02%
-0.28%
What the book is made of
Share of the book by market value. Weights, never amounts. The
proportions are the interesting part and the total is nobody's business.
Show the numbers
Symbol
Weight
TDY (Teledyne Technologies)
15.8%
SGLN (iShares Physical Gold)
14.3%
ARWR (Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals)
13.4%
APD (Air Products and Chemicals)
11.6%
IITU (iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector (Acc))
8.3%
V (Visa)
7.4%
WULF (Terawulf)
7.0%
LNC (Lincoln National)
6.6%
NU (NU Holdings)
6.5%
GXLE (State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Energy Select Sector (Acc))